RERfirst – IS SIMPSON TO BLAME FOR THE HARRIS “MASSACRE”? HERE’S THE NUMBERS (AUDIO)

RERfirst – IS SIMPSON TO BLAME FOR THE HARRIS “MASSACRE”? HERE’S THE NUMBERS (AUDIO)

As reported by RERfirst on February 28, 2017, a nasty brawl has broken out between three Harris County Republican Party Chairs.  Two former county party top dogs, Gary Polland and Jared Woodfill, threw some major shade on current Chair Paul Simpson published in a story by the Weekly Standard’s Fred Barnes.

To the credit of Simpson and his Harris GOP communications team, they shot back hard and fast through a party email and website posting. The Harris GOP email list may not have the reach of the national publication, however.

The political fists fights that occur in the nation’s 3rd-largest county are usually kept under wraps and within the boundaries of the H-Town metro.  To see the deeply-embedded enmity of multiple local political factions spill over to a national publication is a remarkable development.  This underscores the political gravity of southeast Texas – not just on statewide election results, but increasingly more what the national election outcomes are evolving into.

A fascinating book can be written of the various political factions of Harris County politics — their interactions, alliances, and wars.  Not unlike any vast international cosmopolitan city, it’s like a spaghetti bowl of special interests and financiers.  Also, not unlike any vast international cosmopolitan city, the keenly astute political observer will discover that in the midst of that bowl of special interests, there really is a small fraction of politicos that are the actual king and/or queen makers.

If not a book, a series of articles would be appropriate to document why Polland and Woodfill would gang up on Simpson.  Juicy.  Bloody.  Yet, complicated.

What if all the emotion, the politics, the urination competition was taken out of the calculation?  Just end-of-game statistics.  Perhaps a simple, ole fashion look at hard numbers will answer the question of whether Paul Simpson should receive the ultimate blame for the disastrous 2016 election results for Republicans in Harris County.  The GOP lost every countywide race in 2016.

Should Simpson be so aggressively attacked by Polland and Woodfill, or is it just a bunch of noise coming from chairs with bellies full of sour grapes?

“Once upon a time in 2006…”

It was a second midterm election of an unpopular president in his second term.  Nancy Pelosi won the gavel of the U.S. House of Representatives.  And, Democrats swept every countywide seat in Dallas County.

The Democrats were cocky.  They announced they were coming to Houston with a trainload of money and repeat the feat in 2008.

The 2008 Obama Tsunami

Harris County General Election Vote Totals

Republican Straight Ticket Voting                                  343,919           46.51%

Democratic Straight Ticket Voting                                  391,488           52.94%

McCain/Palin                                                                       551,883           48.62%

Obama/Biden                                                                       590,982          50.45%

  • Barack Obama was the first Democrat President candidate to win Harris County since LBJ in 1964. Wins by 39,099 votes.
  • All GOP judge candidates were defeated except three.
  • Only three candidates in the executive branch survived.
  • Jared Woodfill was the county party chairman.

The 2010 Tea Party Revenge

Harris County General Election Vote Totals

Republican Straight Ticket Voting                                    290,355         54.33%

Democratic Straight Ticket Voting                                    240,479         45.00%

Rick Perry                                                                                379,516          48.15%

Bill White                                                                                 395,952         50.23%

  • GOP judgeship candidates were dominate.
  • GOP countywide offices were dominate.
  • Bill White is the former mayor of Houston. Wins by 16,436 votes.
  • Jared Woodfill was the county party chairman.

2012: Obama Back at the Top

Harris County General Election Vote Totals

Republican Straight Ticket Voting                                       404,165     49.43%

Democratic Straight Ticket Voting                                       406,991      49.77%

Romney/Ryan                                                                           586,073      49.31%

Obama/Biden                                                                            587,044      49.39%

  • GOP judges take over the county courthouse.
  • GOP county party keeps up with Democratic Party growth and turnout.
  • GOP votes for presidential ticket gained +6.4%.
  • Democrat votes for presidential ticket lost -.06%.
  • Obama repeats 2008 victory. Wins by 971 votes.
  • Jared Woodfill was the county party chairman.

2014: “Adios, Jared”

Harris County General Election Vote Totals

Republican Straight Ticket Voting                                       254,066      54.26%

Democratic Straight Ticket Voting                                       210,018       44.86%

Greg Abbott                                                                               349,639        51.41%

Wendy Davis                                                                              320,160      47.08%

  • Paul Simpson defeated Jared Woodfill for Harris County Republican Party Chairman in the 2014 Primary.

Jared Woodfill                                                                               44,625                  37.30%

Paul Simpson                                                                                 63,312                  52.91%

2016: Paul Simpson is “The Boss”

Harris County General Election Vote Totals

Republican Straight Ticket Voting                                       401,633      45.28%

Democratic Straight Ticket Voting                                       474,030      53.21%

Trump/Pence                                                                             545,955      41.61%

Clinton/Kaine                                                                             707,914     53.95%

  • GOP straight ticket voting fell 2,532 votes from previous presidential cycle.
  • Democrat straight ticket voting gained 67,039 votes from previous presidential cycle.
  • GOP votes for the presidential ticket lost 39,118 votes, or -7%.
  • Democrat votes for the presidential ticket gained 120,870 votes, or +20.4%.
  • The GOP lost every countywide race.
  • Paul Simpson is the county party chair.

 

RERteam

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